🎲Dicero: Habby’s biggest bet (And biggest risk?)
two & a half gamers · 2026-04-23
💡 Quick Take
1. Ditch rewarded ads for hybrid monetization; the more you abandon them, the worse it gets.
2. "Dero" is a roguelike poker game, similar to "Balatro," but potentially too hardcore.
3. Hobby's "3.0 template" is a significant shift, moving away from ads and towards midcore gameplay.
4. The new economy is more like "Legend of Mushroom," with abundant energy and idle rewards.
5. Gacha systems are evolving, with "leveling up gacha" becoming more common.
6. Offers are now purchasable with hard currency, a departure from previous Hobby games.
7. "Privileges" have replaced "skip it" mechanics in subscriptions.
8. Merging mechanics in gacha are deeper, requiring more pieces.
9. Itemization is reworked, with specific gear types granting different stats (attack, defense, HP).
10. Outfits are now more important, acting as a premium transmog system.
11. "Curious" inventory slots offer significant multiplier bonuses, often from co-op mode.
12. Guild systems are robust and growing quickly.
13. Co-op mode is well-implemented, allowing players to use other characters and offering strategic depth.
14. The core gameplay is dice poker, not Yahtzee, with strategic choices for damage multipliers.
15. There's no traditional auto-play; "sweeps" or "blitz" are the closest equivalent for already completed levels.
16. Skills and abilities significantly alter gameplay, allowing for strategic manipulation of dice pips.
17. Certain weapon archetypes (e.g., Hammer, Poison) synergize with specific level types (AoE, boss focus).
18. Monetization includes typical 7-day events, first purchase packs, launch carnivals, and special packs.
19. Hobby's web store offers discounts and special offers, with codes redeemable online.
20. The game is currently soft-launched in Asia, with a US launch expected later.
21. Creative strategies are heavily reliant on AI-generated content and altered gameplay, but lack innovation compared to past successes like "Survivor IO."
22. The shift to midcore and the abandonment of rewarded ads are impacting Hobby's revenue and download numbers.
23. "Survivor IO" was a standout success due to its marketability and broad appeal.
24. The game's core loop is engaging, requiring player attention and strategic decision-making.
📊 Detailed Explanation
1. Ditch rewarded ads for hybrid monetization; the more you abandon them, the worse it gets. This is a crucial point about the current state of mobile game monetization. The transcript highlights how games like "Archerro," "Archer 2," and "Cygo" relied heavily on rewarded ads. When games move away from this model, especially if they were built around it, the performance and player engagement tend to suffer. It suggests that for many games, especially those in the hypercasual or casual space, rewarded ads are not just an option but a core part of their economic engine and player retention strategy. Abandoning them without a solid replacement can lead to a decline in revenue and a less satisfying player experience.
2. "Dero" is a roguelike poker game, similar to "Balatro," but potentially too hardcore. This identifies the core genre and a key comparison point for the new game, "Dero." "Balatro" is a highly successful roguelike deck-builder that uses poker hands. The similarity implies a strategic depth and replayability. However, the "too hardcore" caveat suggests that "Dero" might alienate a broader audience if its difficulty or complexity is too high, potentially limiting its mainstream appeal compared to more accessible titles.
3. Hobby's "3.0 template" is a significant shift, moving away from ads and towards midcore gameplay. This is a major strategic pivot for the developer, Hobby. The "3.0 template" signifies a departure from their previous successful models, which often incorporated ads and hybrid monetization. The move towards "midcore" suggests a focus on deeper gameplay mechanics, longer play sessions, and potentially a different target audience that appreciates more complex systems. This is a bold move that could redefine their product portfolio.
4. The new economy is more like "Legend of Mushroom," with abundant energy and idle rewards. This provides a concrete comparison for the new economic system. "Legend of Mushroom" is known for its generous in-game economy, where players are often swimming in resources like energy. This contrasts sharply with games where energy is scarce and often tied to rewarded ads. The implication is that "Dero" aims for a less ad-dependent, more player-friendly resource system, focusing on passive progression and constant availability of play sessions.
5. Gacha systems are evolving, with "leveling up gacha" becoming more common. This points to a trend in gacha mechanics. Instead of static drop rates, the "leveling up gacha" means the pool or the chances within the gacha system improve as the player engages with it more (e.g., through rolling). This encourages continued spending and play, creating a sense of progression even within the monetization system itself. It's a way to keep players invested in the loot box mechanics.
6. Offers are now purchasable with hard currency, a departure from previous Hobby games. This is a significant change in monetization strategy. Historically, Hobby games often restricted the purchase of special offers to real money or premium currency. Allowing hard currency (in-game premium currency) to buy these offers makes them more accessible to players who might not spend real money but accumulate in-game currency. This could broaden the appeal of these offers and potentially increase conversion rates from non-spenders.
7. "Privileges" have replaced "skip it" mechanics in subscriptions. This describes a change in how subscription benefits are presented. "Skip it" mechanics likely referred to features that allowed players to bypass certain tasks or wait times. "Privileges" suggests a broader set of benefits, possibly including daily bonuses, extra attempts, or unique buffs. This reframing aims to make subscriptions feel more valuable and comprehensive, aligning with a more midcore player experience.
8. Merging mechanics in gacha are deeper, requiring more pieces. This refers to how items or characters are obtained and upgraded through the gacha system. A "deeper" merging mechanic means that instead of needing, say, 3 identical items to upgrade, players might now need 4 or more. This naturally slows down progression and encourages more pulls from the gacha, potentially increasing monetization as players strive to acquire the necessary components.
9. Itemization is reworked, with specific gear types granting different stats (attack, defense, HP). This highlights a more complex gear system. Instead of generic stat boosts, specific items like hammers, armor, rings, and boots are now tied to particular attributes (attack, defense, HP). This adds a layer of strategy to gear selection and collection, requiring players to understand the synergies and build their characters more deliberately.
10. Outfits are now more important, acting as a premium transmog system. Outfits have evolved from purely cosmetic elements to having a tangible impact on gameplay. They are described as a "premium whatever main chains item transmox," suggesting they offer significant power boosts or unique effects, akin to a transmogrification system in other RPGs but with added gameplay value. This makes acquiring outfits a more strategic and potentially monetizable aspect of the game.
11. "Curious" inventory slots offer significant multiplier bonuses, often from co-op mode. These "Curious" slots are presented as a powerful progression mechanic. They directly influence damage multipliers, which are key to success in a dice poker game. The fact that they are often acquired through co-op mode suggests that social and multiplayer engagement is a significant driver for progression and power, encouraging players to participate in these modes.
12. Guild systems are robust and growing quickly. A strong guild system is a hallmark of many successful mobile games, fostering community and long-term engagement. The observation that the guild is "growing like crazy" indicates that the social features are resonating with players and contributing to the game's early momentum and community building.
13. Co-op mode is well-implemented, allowing players to use other characters and offering strategic depth. The co-op mode is praised for its design. The ability to "recruit" and play with other players' characters, especially stronger ones, adds a dynamic layer. It allows players to experience different playstyles and power levels, enhancing replayability and social interaction. This suggests a well-thought-out multiplayer experience.
14. The core gameplay is dice poker, not Yahtzee, with strategic choices for damage multipliers. This clarifies the fundamental game mechanic and distinguishes it from a simpler dice game like Yahtzee. The emphasis is on strategic decision-making to maximize damage multipliers through poker combinations. This implies a skill-based element where player choices directly impact outcomes, making the gameplay engaging.
15. There's no traditional auto-play; "sweeps" or "blitz" are the closest equivalent for already completed levels. This addresses a common player convenience feature. The absence of traditional auto-play, where the game plays itself, is noted. Instead, the game offers "sweeps" or "blitz" for levels that have already been conquered. This means players still need to actively engage with new content, but can speed up progression on familiar stages, balancing convenience with active gameplay.
16. Skills and abilities significantly alter gameplay, allowing for strategic manipulation of dice pips. This is a key aspect of the game's depth. Players aren't just rolling dice; they have active skills and abilities that can change the values on the dice or provide other strategic advantages. This allows for creative problem-solving and makes each playthrough feel unique, depending on the abilities acquired.
17. Certain weapon archetypes (e.g., Hammer, Poison) synergize with specific level types (AoE, boss focus). This highlights the strategic depth tied to character builds and enemy types. Different weapons and associated skills are better suited for different situations. For example, a Hammer might be good for area-of-effect damage against hordes, while Poison might be more effective against single, high-health bosses. This encourages players to adapt their strategies.
18. Monetization includes typical 7-day events, first purchase packs, launch carnivals, and special packs. This outlines the standard monetization toolkit used in many free-to-play games. These are predictable but effective methods for generating revenue, designed to capture players at different stages of their engagement, from new players to long-term spenders.
19. Hobby's web store offers discounts and special offers, with codes redeemable online. The presence of a dedicated web store indicates a focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and potentially better margins. The ability to redeem codes online, rather than in-game, is a specific implementation detail that players need to be aware of. This also suggests a more mature approach to player engagement and monetization.
20. The game is currently soft-launched in Asia, with a US launch expected later. This provides context on the game's release strategy. Soft launches are common for testing and refining games before a global rollout. The phased approach, starting in Asia and moving to Western markets, is a typical strategy for many mobile game developers, allowing them to gather data and make adjustments before a wider, more expensive launch.
21. Creative strategies are heavily reliant on AI-generated content and altered gameplay, but lack innovation compared to past successes like "Survivor IO." This is a critical assessment of the game's marketing efforts. While AI is being used to generate creatives, the overall approach is seen as uninspired and derivative, failing to capture the groundbreaking appeal of "Survivor IO." The creators suggest that the ads are not innovative enough and don't effectively showcase the core gameplay or unique selling points of "Dero."
22. The shift to midcore and the abandonment of rewarded ads are impacting Hobby's revenue and download numbers. This connects the strategic shifts (midcore, no ads) to tangible business outcomes. The transcript suggests that these changes are leading to lower revenue and downloads, indicating that the new direction might not be as financially successful as their previous ad-heavy models, at least in the short term.
23. "Survivor IO" was a standout success due to its marketability and broad appeal. This identifies "Survivor IO" as a benchmark for success. Its "marketability" and "broad appeal" are cited as key reasons for its exceptional performance. This implies that "Dero" and similar games are struggling to achieve that same level of widespread recognition and player interest.
24. The game's core loop is engaging, requiring player attention and strategic decision-making. Despite criticisms of monetization and marketing, the core gameplay of "Dero" is acknowledged as being good. It's described as requiring players to "use their brain" and pay attention, indicating a satisfying level of engagement and strategic depth. This suggests that the game itself has potential, even if other aspects need refinement.
🎯 Expert Opinion
Alright, let's dive into this. The conversation around "Dero" and Hobby's new "3.0 template" really highlights a pivotal moment for many midcore/hypercasual developers. The shift away from rewarded ads is a massive trend, driven by market saturation, increasing CPIs, and a desire for more sustainable, less intrusive monetization. However, as the transcript points out, simply removing ads without a compelling alternative is a recipe for disaster. The comparison to "Legend of Mushroom" is spot on – that game's success was built on a generous economy that kept players engaged without constantly begging for ad views. "Dero" seems to be aiming for that, but the "too hardcore" comment is a red flag. Midcore is a broad spectrum, and if "Dero" leans too heavily into complex mechanics without a smooth onboarding, it risks alienating the very audience it's trying to attract from the hypercasual space.
The evolution of gacha, particularly the "leveling up gacha," is a smart move to increase player investment and perceived value. It gamifies the monetization itself. However, it also means players are spending more to get incremental upgrades, which can feel like a treadmill if not balanced carefully. The fact that offers are now purchasable with hard currency is a positive step towards player-friendliness, but it's crucial that the value proposition is still there. If the "hard currency" itself is too difficult to obtain without spending real money, it's just a cosmetic change.
The critique of the creatives is particularly insightful. AI is a powerful tool, but it's only as good as the direction it's given. The transcript correctly identifies that simply generating more of the same, or rehashing old creative styles (like "Survivor IO" did so brilliantly), won't cut it. The lack of innovation in "Dero's" marketing is a major concern. "Survivor IO" wasn't just a good game; it had groundbreaking creatives that defined a genre. If "Dero" can't capture that same magic, its marketability will suffer, leading to higher CPIs and lower ROI, as hinted by the discussion on creative numbers and AI usage.
The observation that Hobby's revenue and downloads are declining as they move away from ads is a stark reminder of the current market dynamics. They're essentially betting that the midcore audience will embrace their new direction and spend more through deeper monetization systems. This is a high-stakes gamble. The success of "Survivor IO" was its broad appeal and "marketability" – it was accessible and resonated widely. If "Dero" is too niche or too complex, it might not achieve that same reach. The co-op mode and guild systems are excellent for retention, but they need a strong core loop and a compelling reason for players to invest time and money. The dice poker gameplay sounds promising, but the execution of the progression and monetization will be key. My prediction? If they can nail the onboarding for the midcore elements and make the gacha feel rewarding without being predatory, "Dero" could find a solid niche. But if it remains too hardcore or its marketing continues to be uninspired, it might become another cautionary tale of a developer chasing a trend without fully understanding the implications.
Kanal: two & a half gamers