Koç's situation | Inflation shock under gold | Explain the funds! | Profit-taking in BIST
Barış Soydan · 2026-11-10
💡 Quick Take
1. Real estate sales drop 33 percent while building construction costs rise 29 percent, reflecting severe stagflation pressures.
2. State budget expenditures grow 31 percent against 33 percent revenues, driven heavily by a 75 percent surge in interest expenses.
3. Government bonds and deposit interest remain the only inflation-protected assets in Turkey, while gold and foreign currencies lag.
4. Koç Holding surges 300 percent in net profit due to Tüpraş and high energy revenues amid broader industrial contraction.
5. U.S. inflation beats forecasts at 3.9 percent annual headline, sparking fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes and crashing gold and silver.
📊 Detailed Explanation
The speaker examines the Turkish real estate sector, noting that Emlak Konut sales plunged 33 percent in the first nine months. Despite this sharp drop in demand, the company raised prices to match a 29 percent surge in building construction costs reported by TÜİK. The host points out that while passing on costs prevents operating losses, past astronomical price hikes continue to outpace ordinary citizens' purchasing power. This dynamic underscores persistent inflation driven by both private cost pressures and state fiscal policies.
State budget management remains a major driver of stubborn inflation. According to data analyzed by former banker Murat Aysan, the state budget in the first ten months showed revenues up 33 percent but expenditures up 31 percent. The host highlights that interest expenses exploded by 75 percent compared to last year. Because the state refuses to aggressively cut expenditures while preparing for future elections, Turkey must accept an ongoing economic environment of roughly 30 percent inflation.
Protecting savings against persistent inflation proves difficult across most asset classes. The speaker reveals that in October, only government bonds and deposit interest successfully shielded capital from inflation in real terms. Meanwhile, the dollar, euro, and gold suffered real losses. Over the past twelve months, gold investments actually resulted in roughly a 12 percent real loss after adjusting for inflation, pushing investors away from precious metals toward fixed-income yields.
Corporate earnings present a stark contrast between sectors. Koç Holding reported a massive 300 percent increase in net profit for its nine-month balance sheet, fueled primarily by a 38 percent real revenue surge in its energy segment via Tüpraş. Conversely, other industrial sectors face deep distress, highlighted by recent factory closures and layoffs at German firm Bosch in Bursa and Alarko Carrier in Gebze.
In global markets, higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data sent shockwaves across asset classes. Annual headline inflation reached 3.9 percent, nearly double the Federal Reserve target of two percent. This hotter inflation print revived market expectations for additional Fed interest rate hikes in December and into the new year. As a result, the U.S. dollar strengthened while gold plummeted roughly 3 percent and silver dropped over 4 percent.
U.S. equities experienced turbulence, particularly in the technology sector. Nvidia shares suffered an 11 percent decline over five days due to negative news and broader market volatility, making its upcoming November 17 earnings report a critical event for tech stocks. Analysts watch the upcoming balance sheet closely, as weak figures could trigger a broader sell-off across American technology indexes.
Borsa Istanbul started the day with buyers, climbing toward the 11,800 resistance level before profit-taking set in after noon. The index closed down 0.43 percent at 11,661 on a total volume of 173 billion liras. Industrial stocks fell nearly one percent, while select heavyweights like Turkcell and Turkish Airlines saw strong money inflows and positive decoupling.
Company-specific balance sheet reactions drove sharp movements on the stock exchange. Turkcell posted a 6.7 billion lira profit and gained over 6 percent, while firms reporting weaker results, such as Euro Power, Güler, and CV Energy, hit their floor limits. Bank of America led institutional sales with heavy unloading in Koç Holding and Garanti Bank, while Yapı Kredi Investment absorbed significant buying volume.
The host provides technical levels for Borsa Istanbul following the daily pullback. The immediate support levels stand at 11,550 and 11,400. If the index finds buying support near these thresholds, the speaker notes a strong possibility for the market to resume its upward trajectory, with key psychological resistance remaining anchored at 12,000.
🎯 Finance Expert Opinion
The speaker provides a realistic, sober assessment of Turkey's macroeconomic bottlenecks, refusing to paint an overly rosy picture of domestic asset classes. By juxtaposing sticky 30 percent inflation against surging state interest expenditures, the host exposes the structural limits of current disinflation policies. This framing helps investors understand why traditional safe havens like gold have failed to preserve purchasing power locally over the past year.
Regarding asset allocation, the analysis highlights a clear defensive posture. The data confirms that cash deposits and government bonds remain the only reliable inflation hedges in Turkey, while equities require hyper-selective stock picking based on solid earnings. The speaker does not issue blanket buy recommendations for the broader market, instead urging caution around weak industrial balance sheets and volatile commodities.
Investors must navigate substantial macro risks both domestically and internationally. Domestically, ongoing factory closures, persistent government spending, and rising construction costs signal that the industrial slowdown is far from over. Internationally, stubborn U.S. inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy pose direct threats to precious metals and high-valuation technology equities like Nvidia.
The definitive stance on current market conditions is cautious observation and selective accumulation rather than aggressive buying. Investors should monitor Borsa Istanbul support zones around 11,400 to 11,550 before deploying new capital, while keeping a close eye on upcoming corporate earnings releases. Chasing rallies in overextended assets or distressed industrial counters carries high asymmetric downside risk in this macroeconomic climate.
⚠️ This content is not investment advice.
Kanal: Barış Soydan