Where is Koç heading? | Payment plan in funds | Melting in reserves | Astor kept BIST afloat
Barış Soydan · 2026-10-27
💡 Quick Take
1. Don't buy free foreign‑currency funds any more – the qualified‑investor threshold rose to 50 million TL.
2. Buy Euro‑bonds (foreign‑currency government debt) for FX exposure – 5.90% coupon to Oct 2024, 5.20% to May 2028.
3. Hold money‑market funds – they will be converted to cash at the 16 Sept asset value, so no loss will be taken.
4. Avoid equity and free‑fund holdings – interim‑payment calculations will use the lower, pre‑settlement asset values.
5. Consider buying gold now – spot price rose above $4,060 and central banks/China are still buying.
📊 Detailed Explanation
The host starts by warning that foreign investors are fleeing Turkish private‑sector bonds, cutting their holdings from $4.6 bn to $3 bn since September. This outflow is draining the Central Bank’s net reserves, which fell $5.8 bn in three days after stripping out gold‑price effects. He stresses that the reserve melt‑down will likely continue through the winter, so investors should be wary of holding too much TL.
He then explains that the “free foreign‑currency funds” that once offered >2 % monthly returns are now closed to new buyers because the qualified‑investor threshold jumped from 10 mn TL to 50 mn TL. Existing qualified investors can still sell, but no new money can flow in, making these funds unattractive for fresh FX exposure.
As an alternative, he highlights domestic foreign‑currency‑denominated government bonds (Eurobonds). One issue matures in October 2024 with a 5.90 % coupon, the other in May 2028 with 5.20 %. There’s no withholding or income tax on these, so they become the preferred vehicle for investors wanting to park money in dollars or euros.
Regarding the ongoing fund liquidation, the regulator (CMB/SPK) announced that interim payments will start with money‑market funds. These will be valued at the asset price on the evening of 16 Sept, meaning investors won’t suffer the interim‑period losses that equity and free‑fund investors will face. Hence, the host advises holding money‑market funds but steering clear of equity‑linked funds.
On commodities, he notes spot gold jumped more than 1 % to $4,062 and silver rose above $54, driven by central‑bank buying and a fresh Chinese buying spree. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts projects gold at $4,650 by 2027, so he suggests a buying stance on gold while the price recovers.
The host then turns to corporate earnings, pointing out that Koç Holding’s key subsidiaries are in trouble: Türk Traktör’s domestic sales fell 51 % and Arçelik posted a 45 % drop in core operating profit and an 11.5 % sales decline (inflation‑adjusted). He warns that these results reflect broader weakness in durable‑goods demand and high interest rates, implying a bearish view on Koç stocks.
Despite the overall market softness, two defense‑related stocks, Astor and Aselsan, hit floor‑limit peaks, buoying BIST. Their strong buying pressure offset broader sell‑offs, so the host sees them as bright spots that could support the index.
Finally, he mentions the upcoming U.S. earnings season (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) and the Fed meeting, which will set the tone for global risk appetite. He cautions that any disappointment could trigger another round of selling, especially in the Turkish market already under reserve pressure.
🎯 Finance Expert Opinion
The speaker’s core message is caution: Turkish reserves are eroding, foreign‑currency fund avenues are closing, and major domestic exporters are under pressure. His recommendation to shift into tax‑free Eurobonds aligns with a defensive, income‑focused strategy for investors needing FX exposure.
His bullish tilt on gold is justified by the recent price bounce and continued central‑bank buying, especially from China. For investors seeking a hedge against a weakening TL, gold offers a tangible store of value without the legal complexities of bond markets.
The warning on Koç Holding and related equities is prudent. The sharp sales and profit declines signal sector‑specific stress that is unlikely to reverse quickly, given the high‑interest‑rate environment and seasonal demand slowdown.
Overall, I echo his stance: avoid new exposure to free foreign‑currency funds and TL‑heavy equities, favor Eurobonds for stable FX returns, and consider a modest allocation to gold. Keep a close eye on reserve trends and U.S. earnings, as they will dictate whether risk appetite improves or further contracts.
⚠️ This content is not investment advice.
Kanal: Barış Soydan