Resignation shock | Fund lawsuits | Continue with interest rates? | The drop in the euro
Barış Soydan · 2026-11-11
💡 Quick Take
1. Borsa Istanbul at 11,666 — hold current positions, but watch the 11,550 support closely.
2. BIST resistance at 11,800 — do not chase intraday rallies because afternoon sellers cap gains.
3. Palladium near 5% daily gain — do not buy this rally because it lacks real physical demand.
4. Gold at $4,000 and Silver at $52 — do not rush into metals while hawkish Fed expectations linger.
5. Euro at 1.08 parity — expect further weakness toward 1.00 as the dollar gains strength.
📊 Detailed Explanation
The euro dropped 0.70% against both the dollar and the lira, touching 55.72 liras at the Grand Bazaar. The euro-dollar parity slipped to 1.08, bringing a drop toward 1.00 into view. Higher US inflation sparked expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials and rate hike projections from Wall Street banks strengthened the dollar. Meanwhile, foreign currencies failed to protect Turkish investors over the past year. The dollar rose only 18.7% and the euro gained 14.6% against the lira. Both lagged behind official inflation of around 30%.
Compound bank deposits delivered the only real defense against inflation in Turkey over the past year. Adding monthly interest back into the principal produced an annual compound return of 35.9%. In contrast, housing prices rose 22.3%, gram gold gained 17.2%, and used car prices added just 6.3% nominally. Car prices lost value in real terms after falling 1.94% last month. The Central Bank of Turkey now prepares for rate cuts in December. Bank of America expects a 100 basis point cut, forecasting policy rates to fall from 36% to 31% over time. That implies deposit yields around 32%, which will only barely protect savings if inflation falls.
Economic activity across Turkey is slowing down sharply as tight policy and fund scandals take a toll. Credit card spending dropped nearly 10% in real terms since September. Households are cutting back because disposable income has dried up. Factories are announcing layoffs and closing assembly lines. Canned tuna maker Dardanel failed to pay October worker salaries on time, blaming broader market trouble. Abundant bluefish kept fresh seafood price inflation at just 2.70% this year. That price pressure made it hard for processed food brands to compete.
Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency head Şahap Kavcıoğlu resigned amid expanding investigations into fund fraud. Legal scholar Ali Ulusoy points out how burned investors can fight for their money in court. The latest legal changes blocked constitutional settlement rights, which requires a challenge at the Constitutional Court. However, investors can still sue the Capital Markets Board under Article 125 of the Constitution. That rule holds state agencies liable for damages caused by poor supervision. Victims must file a formal written notice with the regulator first, then submit a court claim within 60 days.
Global commodity markets faced pressure from rising dollar expectations. Spot gold slipped 0.80% to $4,000, and silver pulled back to $52 after touching $53 earlier in the day. Palladium jumped nearly 5%, but Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen warns traders not to buy. Hansen notes that position unwinding, not real industrial demand, caused the sudden bounce. Over in the equity space, American technology shares gained ground on strong corporate earnings. Borsa Istanbul started the day strong at 11,820 before afternoon selling wiped out gains, closing flat at 11,666 on 142 billion liras in volume.
Turkish equities showed clear company-specific splits instead of a broad market rally. Tüpraş drew strong institutional buying from Bank of America, while Katılımevim hit its upper price limit. On the downside, Gülermak hit the lower limit after prosecutors moved to freeze the assets of its owner. The company also saw its fund balances plunge from 1.7 billion liras to 253 million liras. Türkiye Sigorta triggered trading curbs following arrests related to fund operations. The overall index trend remains positive above 11,550 support, but breaking below that level will accelerate selling toward key moving averages.
🎯 Finance Expert Opinion
The host offers a practical assessment of the Turkish macro environment. Investors holding foreign cash or physical goods like cars are losing money against inflation. Parking cash in Turkish lira compound deposits remains the only low-risk hedge available right now. However, that protection will narrow as central bank rate cuts begin in December. Chasing currencies like the euro offers poor risk-reward while the euro-dollar parity trends toward 1.00.
The cautious stance on precious metals and domestic equities is well justified. Chasing a speculative 5% spike in palladium carries heavy downside risk because institutional positioning drove the move. Spot gold at $4,000 and silver at $52 also face headwinds from sticky US interest rates. In Turkish equities, do not buy index rallies near the 11,800 resistance. Afternoon sell-offs show that big players use morning pops to dump liquidity.
Investors must account for deep cracks in Turkey's corporate sector. Falling card spending, factory layoffs, and payroll defaults at listed brands prove that demand is dropping. Ongoing legal probes into fund fraud create headline risks that can suddenly crater individual stocks. Conservative savers should maintain high-yield cash deposits. Active traders should hold resilient blue chips, avoid debt-laden industrials, and place strict stop-loss orders below 11,550 on Borsa Istanbul.
⚠️ This content is not investment advice.
Kanal: Barış Soydan