The account has changed | Farewell to Zorlu | Current status of interim payments | How the stock market rose
Barış Soydan · 2026-11-03
💡 Quick Take
1. Don't buy gold or silver at current levels; wait for a clearer trend during the US midterm elections and oil price movements.
2. US stocks face high volatility due to midterm elections; JPMorgan warns of a 500-point drop if Democrats sweep.
3. Turkish inflation sits stubbornly around 2.5% monthly; money in dollars or euros continues to melt against inflation.
4. Turkish Lira deposit yields have dropped head-to-head with monthly inflation after tax deductions.
5. Central Bank reserves are melting rapidly; a December rate cut is in question due to foreign capital flight risks.
📊 Detailed Explanation
Turkey announced October monthly inflation at roughly 2.5 percent, with Turkstat reporting 2.58 percent and ENAG reporting 2.68 percent. This annualized rate locks inflation near 30 percent. The host points out that keeping money in foreign currencies like US dollars or euros causes it to melt against this rising inflation, as the dollar increased by only 1.90 percent against the Turkish Lira last month.
Turkish Lira deposit yields have narrowed to match inflation. Central Bank data shows an average monthly interest yield of 3.02 percent, which drops to around 2.5 percent after accounting for a 17.5 percent withholding tax. This puts post-tax yields right in line with monthly inflation, while the British Pound and Swiss Franc saw temporary spikes driven by foreign central bank meetings.
Food price inflation remains the core structural problem, jumping 3.5 percent last month and outpacing headline inflation. The host notes that structural issues like emptying villages and decreasing cultivated lands mean food inflation will not fall easily through interest rate hikes alone.
The Central Bank faces a critical dilemma regarding its upcoming December meeting. While former chief economist Hakan Kara suggests inflation does not block a rate cut, heavy melting in Central Bank swap-adjusted reserves—close to 3 billion dollars late last week and another 1.4 billion dollars early this week—might force the bank to skip the cut to prevent foreign capital flight.
The domestic fund liquidation process brought some updates as the Presidency Directorate of Communications announced that 1 million lira interim payments will continue this week. However, the host criticizes the lack of clear calculation methods and demands transparency, noting that the fund scandal has dragged the broader Turkish economy into stagnation.
Automobile sales data reveals a severe economic slowdown, with the total automotive market contracting by 30 percent and light commercial vehicle sales dropping by 40 percent compared to last year. Meanwhile, corporate restructuring made headlines as Vestel and Anadolu Group Holding transferred TOGG shares worth 184 million euros to the state, impacting stock prices for Zorlu Energy and Vestel entities following the passing of Zorlu Holding Chairman Ahmet Nazif Zorlu.
Precious metals like gold and silver are hovering near previous thresholds at 3,930 dollars for gold, awaiting US midterm election results. Central bank gold purchases surged 42 percent globally in the third quarter, which balanced out drops in jewelry and bullion demand, keeping total demand flat.
US stock markets are reacting to falling oil prices—pushed down by statements regarding aid to Israel—and upcoming congressional elections. JPMorgan warns that a Democratic sweep could trigger a 5-percent drop in the S&P 500, while a divided government or Republican victory could spark a market rally.
Borsa Istanbul experienced a volatile session, opening down 0.37 percent at 10,921 due to inflation data and bank sell-offs. The index bounced back from an intraday low of 10,848 to close up 0.56 percent at 11,023. Industrial stocks gained 1.17 percent, while total trading volume reached 141 billion liras, with support identified at 10,850 and resistance at 11,250.
🎯 Finance Expert Opinion
The host delivers a grounded assessment of Turkey's macroeconomic bottlenecks, tying sticky inflation directly to structural food supply failures rather than monetary policy alone. By breaking down post-tax deposit yields versus actual monthly inflation, the commentary dispels the illusion of high nominal returns for everyday savers.
The analysis rightly avoids pushing aggressive bullish stances on foreign currencies or domestic equities given the fragile state of Central Bank reserves. The warning regarding foreign capital flight and shrinking carry trade yields provides a vital reality check for investors relying on short-term lira yields.
Investors should note the severe credit and liquidity risks highlighted by the automotive market contraction and ongoing fund liquidation troubles. These indicators signal deeper economic stagnation that could weigh heavily on corporate earnings in consumer-discretionary sectors.
The overarching stance across major asset classes remains cautious. With gold consolidating near key thresholds and the Borsa testing crucial technical levels between support at 10,850 and resistance at 11,250, patience and capital preservation are far wiser than aggressive accumulation at current market tops.
⚠️ This content is not investment advice.
Kanal: Barış Soydan