Critical week globally: Fed + 3 balance sheets | Why did cryptos fall?
Barış Soydan · 2026-10-24
💡 Quick Take
1. Bitcoin: Don't buy expecting a safe-haven rally while high oil prices and ETF outflows persist.
2. Indebted AI cloud stocks: Don't buy debt-heavy plays like CoreWeave after its steep 25% weekly plunge.
3. Crude oil: Don't expect oil to drop quickly while Brent hovers near 117 dollars on war risks.
4. Gold: Wait on precious metals while high energy costs fuel rate fears and drag prices lower.
5. Meta: Don't buy earnings dips blindly when balance sheets carry massive liabilities near 825 billion dollars.
📊 Detailed Explanation
Global markets faced heavy selling last week, and the host points directly at surging oil. Brent crude climbed back to 117 dollars. When energy prices spike, investors immediately fear higher inflation. That fear triggers worries about higher interest rates for longer. As a result, the S&P 500 slipped 0.40%, and crypto dropped across the board. The host warns viewers not to expect oil to cool down soon. A New York Times report revealed US plans for military action against Iran after the November 3rd elections. Any military move could send oil higher and punish risk assets again.
This week brings a heavy slate of central bank meetings that will set the market tone. The Federal Reserve takes the stage on Wednesday. The Fed will likely hold rates steady, but traders will parse every sentence from the podium. Hawkish messages (signals pointing to tight monetary policy) will hammer stocks, gold, and crypto. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan follow right after. Japan matters deeply because it used to offer ultra-cheap borrowing. Now that Japan is raising interest rates, global risk capital faces higher funding costs everywhere.
The host stresses that tech earnings will decide whether the latest stock drop continues. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will release their quarterly balance sheets this week. Up to now, most large technology firms have beaten revenue and profit forecasts. However, market expectations have shifted. Investors no longer celebrate a simple top-line beat. They now scrutinize capital spending, corporate debt, and future investment plans very closely.
A clear split is forming within the artificial intelligence sector. On one side are the cloud service providers like CoreWeave, which tumbled 25% in a single week. These firms borrowed nearly 60 billion dollars to buy servers and equipment. The host warns not to lump those debtors together with chip fabricators. TSMC grew its revenue by roughly 40% and reported sold-out factory lines. Hardware providers with real cash flows remain fundamentally sound, while debt-funded cloud upstarts face serious liquidity questions.
Meta provided a painful lesson last week about how Wall Street treats corporate debt today. Meta beat Wall Street estimates on both revenue and earnings. The stock rose after hours, only to crash hard the following day. Investors discovered 825 billion dollars in total liabilities and obligations on the balance sheet. The fear of servicing nearly 1 trillion dollars in liabilities triggered an aggressive sell-off. The host urges investors to check whether Google and Amazon announce even larger capital spending plans this week.
Wall Street remains publicly bullish on giant tech platforms despite these risks. Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan analysts have issued 42 strong buy ratings for Amazon. They project around 34% upside from current levels. Microsoft shows 41 strong buy recommendations with a projected 15% upside. Meanwhile, Apple emerged as the best yearly performer among tech giants. Apple spent far less on speculative artificial intelligence ventures, leaving it free of massive new debt burdens. Broad ETFs tracking the top seven tech giants gained only 7% over the past year due to laggards.
Bitcoin ended the week down about 1% alongside steady outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. The host dismisses the popular narrative that Bitcoin currently acts as a safe haven. Instead, crypto moves in lockstep with Nasdaq stocks and acts like a canary in a coal mine. When oil surges and stock appetite sours, crypto prices fall immediately. In addition, US crypto legislation stalled in Congress until after the election. Political candidates have stopped offering fresh crypto promises, leaving the token market fully exposed to macro headwinds.
Beneath the market price swings, structural blockchain adoption continues to expand. Tether and bank-issued stablecoins like JP Morgan's token are posting record transaction numbers worldwide. A recent Deutsche Bank report ranked Turkey second globally behind Thailand for inbound stablecoin transfers, ahead of the United States. Furthermore, tokenized stocks (traditional company shares traded on a blockchain) reached 37 billion dollars in volume last quarter. Most of this volume flowed through retail apps like Robinhood, linking traditional equity investing directly to crypto networks.
🎯 Finance Expert Opinion
The host correctly identifies energy prices as the single biggest threat to financial assets right now. When Brent crude trades near 117 dollars, central bankers cannot afford to sound relaxed. The host's warning about the Fed and the Bank of Japan is spot on. Japan ending cheap yen loans removes a global liquidity cushion that supported US tech stocks for years. Expect volatility to jump sharply across both equities and crypto this week.
I agree completely with the host's cautious stance on debt-heavy tech firms. Markets spent two years bidding up any company that mentioned artificial intelligence. Now the bill has come due. Meta carrying 825 billion dollars in total obligations shows that AI infrastructure requires eye-watering amounts of capital. The host is right to separate cash-rich chip fabricators from overleveraged cloud platforms. Do not touch firms like CoreWeave that rely on cheap borrowing to stay alive.
The host's reality check on Bitcoin is another strong, accurate call. Crypto advocates love to market Bitcoin as digital gold during crises. In practice, institutions treat it as pure speculative risk. The continuous ETF outflows and the negative correlation with oil prove that Bitcoin cannot decouple from interest rates. Investors holding crypto must watch oil prices and bond yields rather than hoping for immediate safe-haven flows.
My overall stance aligns with the host's guarded tone: hold cash and defend your capital. Do not buy market dips in tech or crypto ahead of the Fed rate press conference. Accumulate quality semiconductor stocks with zero balance sheet stress only on major pullbacks. For digital assets, avoid altcoins entirely and wait until central bank guidance stabilizes before building new Bitcoin exposure.
⚠️ This content is not investment advice.
Kanal: Barış Soydan