The Trump surge beneath | Payments in funds will continue | The stock market caught its breath
Barış Soydan · 2026-11-04
💡 Quick Take
1. Gold per ounce: Do not buy blindly at this level; wait and watch how US monetary policy and Iran tensions unfold.
2. Silver: Gains of about 4.5% reaching 52 dollars, but treat current price strength with caution.
3. Euro Dollar parity: Hovering near 1.13; currency direction remains tied to US political shifts.
4. Turkish Lira: At its most expensive real level in 6.5 years, gaining 30% in real terms since 2023.
5. Investment funds in liquidation: Partial payments started with a maximum of 250,000 liras paid out; expect payments to continue.
📊 Detailed Explanation
The host starts by examining the fallout from the US midterm elections where Trump's party lost majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This political shift caused the dollar to drop roughly 0.50% against the euro and nearly 1% against other currencies. The weaker dollar immediately triggered a relief rally in precious metals. Gold per ounce jumped by about 160 dollars to reach 4,500 dollars, recovering from a dip below 3,900 dollars just days prior. The speaker points out that while gold reacted positively, investors should not rush into fresh buying at these elevated levels without monitoring future geopolitical developments.
Silver also experienced a strong session, surging by approximately 4.5% to hit 52 dollars. Meanwhile, the Euro Dollar parity climbed back near the 1.13 threshold. The host explains that the short-term trajectory of both gold and silver will remain at the mercy of US monetary policy and political maneuvers. If Trump de-escalates tensions with Iran, oil prices could drop, easing inflationary pressures and reducing the need for central banks to hike interest rates—a scenario favorable for gold. Conversely, stubborn retaliation could drive oil higher, reigniting inflation and forcing central banks into aggressive rate hikes that suppress precious metals.
Shifting to domestic currency dynamics, the Turkish Lira continues its familiar story of lagging behind inflation in nominal depreciation. However, new data shows the real effective exchange rate of the lira has hit a 6.5-year peak. Adjusted for the inflation differential between Turkey and its trading partners, the lira has gained 30% in real value since Mehmet Şimşek took office in 2023. This appreciation creates heavy cost pressures and complaints from exporters, though the economic management is expected to maintain this policy course leading up to elections.
The ongoing crisis surrounding investment funds under liquidation saw some partial relief. While initial expectations promised up to 1 million liras, payouts have been capped at a maximum of 250,000 liras per investor for now. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz confirmed that remaining principal amounts will eventually be distributed to more than 455,000 affected investors. Additionally, blocked BIST 30 stocks held within these troubled funds were transacted in a 12.7 billion lira block sale outside the exchange to pension and investment funds, locking them away for three months and removing immediate selling pressure from the open market.
Corporate balance sheets reveal a stark division in the Turkish real sector. High interest rates, tight monetary policy, and general economic stagnation are taking a heavy toll. Established construction chemical producer Kale Seramik revealed heavy operational losses and negative working capital, forcing management into debt restructuring talks with banks. Thousands of companies face similar distress. On the bright side, tourism-oriented giants like Turkish Airlines reported resilient performance, with a 42 percent turnover increase over nine-month operations, helping keep parts of the economy afloat.
In the United States, equity markets initially reacted with caution before rebounding strongly, with the Nasdaq index rising 2 percent. Sectoral performance clearly favored industries aligned with the Democratic party. Renewable energy companies and health insurance providers—such as Centene Corporation, which jumped 6 percent—posted outsized gains due to expectations of favorable policy support. Corporate earnings also drove individual stock movements, with chipmaker AMD benefiting from a favorable reception of its financial report compared to rival Intel's recent struggles.
Borsa Istanbul experienced a powerful morale boost, surging 4.12 percent to close at 11,468 points. Banking stocks led the charge with a 5.11 percent gain, while industrial stocks rose 3.71 percent. Trading volume rebounded above 211 billion liras, ending a dry spell caused by the investment fund scandal. The primary catalyst for the rally was the aforementioned block transfer of 12.7 billion liras worth of stocks out of the liquidation pool. Additional support came from Garanti Bankası announcing an 11 billion lira share buyback program and Bank of America turning net positive with significant heavy buying.
🎯 Finance Expert Opinion
The host delivers a balanced market commentary by connecting international political shocks directly to local asset price movements. The analysis of the US midterm elections and its immediate transmission mechanism through a weaker dollar to gold, silver, and the euro is logically sound. By highlighting both the bullish case of falling oil and the bearish risk of renewed geopolitical conflict, the speaker avoids oversimplified predictions and properly frames the uncertainty surrounding precious metals.
On the domestic front, the discussion regarding the real effective exchange rate hitting a 6.5-year peak provides vital context for investors. A 30 percent real appreciation of the Turkish Lira since 2023 explains the severe margin compression and distress visible in exporting and manufacturing sectors like Kale Seramik. Investors must recognize that while tight monetary policy stabilizes currency optics, it simultaneously starves leveraged industrial players of operational liquidity.
The resolution steps regarding the frozen investment funds represent a critical turning point for market psychology. The forced block sale of 12.7 billion liras worth of BIST 30 equities successfully quarantined toxic liquidation pressure for three months, instantly restoring liquidity and driving a relief rally in Borsa Istanbul. However, investors should view this 4.12 percent surge as a technical and relief-driven rebound rather than the start of an unchecked bull market, especially given the underlying macroeconomic stagnation.
In summary, market participants should exercise caution. While short-term momentum favors sectors benefiting from block-sale relief and major buyback announcements like Garanti Bankası, fundamental risks persist in the real sector. Traders should closely monitor the 11,250 support level on Borsa Istanbul and avoid chasing gold and silver blindly at current highs until macroeconomic and geopolitical smoke clears.
⚠️ This content is not investment advice.
Kanal: Barış Soydan